Howe Robinson, a shipping brokerage company, predicts that the demand growth rate of the bulk shipping market will fall to 1% this year. At the commodities forum held during Singapore maritime week recently, Janina Lam, head of dry bulk research of the company, said that due to geopolitical factors, it had to continue to reduce demand expectations.

According to Lam's prediction, Ukraine's grain trade volume will decline sharply this year, while Russia's decline may be small. The export volume of the two countries accounts for 24% of the total global grain trade; It is expected that the quantity of corn imported by China will decrease this year; Australia's wheat production is expected to fall from 20 million tons last year to 10 million tons this year; India seeks to increase wheat exports to about 10 million to 15 million tons.

In terms of energy trade, as Europe turns to Australia, Colombia, South Africa and the United States to purchase coal, it is expected that the increase of global coal shipping turnover will make up for the gap of 20-30 million tons from Russia. However, it is noteworthy that China is planning to increase domestic coal production by 300 million tons to replace some coal imports.

In addition, due to the high inventory, China's demand for iron ore will also slow down. Relevant forecasts show that the global inflation expectation will rise from 3.9% last year to 6.4% this year, and the global GDP growth rate is expected to drop to 3.3%. As the main driving force of the dry bulk shipping market, China may not have as much impact on the dry bulk market this year as in previous years. China's iron ore imports are expected to increase by 2% this year, while coal imports will shrink.

In terms of transport capacity supply, the global dry bulk cargo fleet is expected to grow by 2.6% this year, that is, 24.4 million dwt; Considering the strong freight level, the ship dismantling volume will remain low; New shipbuilding orders will increase, but the proportion of orders in the existing fleet is still low, less than 7%.

In addition, according to industry analysis, the new regulations on international shipping carbon intensity technology and operation measures, which will take effect in 2023, will not have a significant impact on the dry bulk shipping market, because the growth of the number of ships has slowed down in the past few years. (source: Lloyd's daily compiled by COSCO Shipping Research Center)

DONGHENG ALUMINUM is a large-scale industrial and trade integration enterprise integrating R&D, production and sales. The company has more than 100 outstanding employees and is located in the beautiful Qingdao. Mainly engaged in the production and sales of aluminum sheets, foils and coils. The company's scale has been continuously expanded, and its sales network has covered more than 60 countries around the world. The company takes the initiative to undertake social responsibilities, and regards ecological environmental protection as the key task of development.